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Southeast polyolefins demand growth could be negative again in 2021

BEFORE the pandemic, GDP growth rates in the developing world were always higher than in developed economies.And because developing economies had much lower levels of petrochemicals consumption than their rich counterparts, it meant that the multiples over GDP were higher than in the rich word, where consumption was pretty much saturated.

For instance, polyethylene (PE) demand in a developed country such as Germany might have grown at 0.3% times GDP whereas in Indonesia the growth could have been one or more times higher than the rate of growth in GDP.But as The Economist wrote in this 11 July article: “In 2021 the poorest countries, which are desperately short of vaccines, are forecast to grow more slowly than rich countries for only the third time in 25 years.”

Might the multiples over GDP growth also be adversely affected in the developing world, trending lower than the historic norms?

They will almost certainly remain higher than the rich countries. But here is the thing: as millions more people are pushed back into extreme poverty by the pandemic or are denied the opportunity to achieve middle-income status, I believe that developing-world multiples may well decline.Escaping extreme poverty means being able to, say, afford a whole bottle of shampoo for the first time rather than a single-serve sachet, thereby raising per capita polymers consumption.

Spotlight

Atlantic Chemicals Trading GmbH

For more than 25 years, ACT has distributed certified top-quality raw materials for the manufacture of food, feed, pharmaceutical and cosmetic products. ACT was founded in 1985 in Hamburg, Germany by Dr. Ramin Ghaffari. Today ACT is an established company with over 60 employees in offices in Hamburg and 12 other locations all over the world. Our successes are always the result of teamwork, and each of our colleagues contributes daily with his or her initiative and expertise.

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Recent discoveries in the Guyana-Suriname basin attest to estimates of 10+ Bbbl of oil resources and more than 30 Tcf of gas.1 Like many oil & gas successes, this is a story that begins with early exploration success onshore, followed by a long period of exploration disappointment in coastal to shelf regions offshore, eventually culminating in deepwater success.

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IT FEELS LIKE several lifetimes ago. If you recall, way back in November-December 2019 Asian variable cost integrated naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) margins turned negative because of the increase in US capacity. Then in January the following year, deep Asian and Middle East operating rate cuts returned some order to the market. Then, bang, as we all know, the pandemic arrived and turned everything on its head. The pandemic has, in my view, accentuated trends that were already well underway. I believe this means that the supply-driven downturn that started in late 2019 will not return.Long before coronavirus upended everyone’s lives, PE demand was becoming increasingly divorced from GDP growth because of the shifting nature of end-use demand. Booming internet sales was, I believe, a major factor behind the split between the growth of the overall economies in the developed world plus China and PE demand.The average product bought online is dropped 17 times because of the large number of people involved in the logistics chain, according to Forbes. This had led to a surge in demand for protective packaging made not from PE and other polymers such as polypropylene, expandable polystyrene and PET films (I will look at their demand growth prospects in later posts).Despite sustainability pressures, the scale of demand for stuff bought online translated to a lot more consumption of virgin polymers.

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Recent discoveries in the Guyana-Suriname basin attest to estimates of 10+ Bbbl of oil resources and more than 30 Tcf of gas.1 Like many oil & gas successes, this is a story that begins with early exploration success onshore, followed by a long period of exploration disappointment in coastal to shelf regions offshore, eventually culminating in deepwater success.

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Article | June 29, 2021

The chemical industry is evolving. The marketing, purchasing, and selling of chemicals are being affected by forces in the market, with digitization unquestionably having the most significant impact. Many of the existing digitizing models have likely already been given some thought and then rejected. Chemical businesses are currently conducting pilot projects or starting to gradually scale up their digital initiatives after moving past the proof-of-concept stage. Although this past year brought many difficulties, it also provided an opportunity to revise and re-evaluate foundations moving forward. The Great Reset, as the World Economic Forum has dubbed this time period, is illuminating how the chemical industry might leverage digital technologies to advance. Whether prompted by governmental requirements or consumer desires, chemical businesses' net-zero ambitions will necessitate new expenditures throughout the whole chemical value chain. As a result, back-office costs must be as efficient as possible to free up money to pay for those investments while keeping a profit. Consumer pull The most essential requirements for the success of a new product are a solid understanding of customer needs and wants, the competitive climate, and the makeup of the market. The primary factors that influence the needs of the consumer are price, timing, and quality. Therefore, companies create ongoing procedures and plans with these three factors in mind to better serve client needs and grow their market share by regularly creating new products. Technology pushes The influence of digital technology is constantly growing. One of the foundational elements of 21st-century sources of growth is data-driven innovation. There are numerous items and procedures in the history of innovation that were the result of an accident or careful forethought. Vast volumes of data, or "big data," are being produced and used as a result of the convergence of numerous phenomena, including the growing migration of socio-economic activities on the Internet and the decline in the cost of data collecting, storage, and processing. Large data sets are becoming an essential resource for the economy, supporting the development of new markets, procedures, and goods while also generating substantial competitive advantages. For example, a billion customers can now access broadband at a reasonable price because of the digital world's supporting infrastructure. In addition, cloud computing and the enormous amount of information processing equipment it needs are developing swiftly, and low-cost connected gadgets are being introduced into every industry. Economic benefits The financial gains that can be realized through digitization are genuine. The new digital technologies and businesses have seen an influx of cash, and the public markets are rewarding early adopters with record values. The effects of digitization are spreading swiftly throughout every business. Digitization is the changing of life and work as a result of new technologies, not only their acceptance. Much like earlier technologies, modern emerging technologies like the cloud and big data quickly become part of businesses' operations. Unknown to many, this is having a much more significant impact on the industry that makes these tools as well as on customers. Digitalization that derives from and includes strategic business objectives can greatly benefit chemical firms. Cost savings of roughly 30 to 40 percent can already be made on average today. Additionally, in certain situations, digitalization aided in improving service quality and affected the bottom line by, for instance, enabling new business models. On average, platform-driven digitization projects pay off after 18 months.

Read More
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Article | May 2, 2021

The market size for polymeric and resin binders in the global printing ink marketwas estimated to be over 1,200,000 MT in 2020, with a CAGR of about five percent. A major driver of this growth comes from the packaging industry, due to increases in consumer spending and online shopping, as well as demand for processed and packaged foods and beverages. In addition, increased use of water-based inks is promoting market growth, off-setting environmental and health concerns regarding solvent-based inks in addition to strict environmental protection policies. Water-based inks are projected to overtake solvent-based inks due to environmental regulations, the reduction of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the pressroom, and improvements in overall print quality. Ink formulations are complex mixtures, consisting of four basic component classes: pigments, polymeric binder resins, solvents or an aqueous dispersant media, and additives, such as surfactants, waxes, and rheology modifiers that enhance print quality. The purpose of the resin binder is to disperse and carry the ink pigment to the substrate, stabilize the pigment and additives dispersion to prevent settling, and provide print properties such as ink transfer behavior, setting, and drying characteristics. The binder also contributes surface appearance and gloss, strength and flexibility, chemical and solvent resistance, and also rub resistance. Ink binders can be categorized into the following polymer and resin types: acrylics, polyurethanes, polyamides, modified resins, hydrocarbon resins, and modified cellulosics.

Read More
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Article | June 15, 2021

IT FEELS LIKE several lifetimes ago. If you recall, way back in November-December 2019 Asian variable cost integrated naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) margins turned negative because of the increase in US capacity. Then in January the following year, deep Asian and Middle East operating rate cuts returned some order to the market. Then, bang, as we all know, the pandemic arrived and turned everything on its head. The pandemic has, in my view, accentuated trends that were already well underway. I believe this means that the supply-driven downturn that started in late 2019 will not return.Long before coronavirus upended everyone’s lives, PE demand was becoming increasingly divorced from GDP growth because of the shifting nature of end-use demand. Booming internet sales was, I believe, a major factor behind the split between the growth of the overall economies in the developed world plus China and PE demand.The average product bought online is dropped 17 times because of the large number of people involved in the logistics chain, according to Forbes. This had led to a surge in demand for protective packaging made not from PE and other polymers such as polypropylene, expandable polystyrene and PET films (I will look at their demand growth prospects in later posts).Despite sustainability pressures, the scale of demand for stuff bought online translated to a lot more consumption of virgin polymers.

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Spotlight

Atlantic Chemicals Trading GmbH

For more than 25 years, ACT has distributed certified top-quality raw materials for the manufacture of food, feed, pharmaceutical and cosmetic products. ACT was founded in 1985 in Hamburg, Germany by Dr. Ramin Ghaffari. Today ACT is an established company with over 60 employees in offices in Hamburg and 12 other locations all over the world. Our successes are always the result of teamwork, and each of our colleagues contributes daily with his or her initiative and expertise.

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Charter Next Generation Launches GreenArrow™ Cavitated Recycle-Ready PE Films For Confectionery Applications Using Void Technologies'

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Charter Next Generation Launches GreenArrow™ Cavitated Recycle-Ready PE Films For Confectionery Applications Using Void Technologies'

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Charter Next Generation (CNG), a leading provider of sustainable films, announced that it has expanded its GreenArrow portfolio with a new line of cavitated polyethylene (PE) films. Developed in collaboration with VOID Technologies (VOID), the new recycle-ready films meet the rapidly growing demand for flow wrap and confectionery applications. Using VOID's patented VO+™ PE Voiding Agent Masterbatch and Machine Direction Orientation (MDO) film processing, CNG has successfully developed high-performing PE film structures that are opaque yet compatible with existing PE recycling streams making more packaging suitable for recycling. Adoption of MDO PE film is a rapidly growing industry trend as it enables recyclable, high-performing flexible packaging. By using VO+ Masterbatch, CNG can now produce thin gauge voided MDO PE films that offer a combination of low density and high opacity not achievable with mineral additives such as TiO2 pigments or CaCO3 cavitation agents. This innovation creates a unique PE-based recycle-ready alternative to conventional PP-based substrates that often require biaxial orientation. "CNG continues to raise the bar and re-invent packaging with a sustainability-first mindset. Using VOID's patented VO+ technology enables us to achieve the high opacity, ease of processing, and recycle-ready performance we are targeting for these films. This in turn allows our customers to reduce their use of virgin materials and process their packaging in existing polyethylene film recycling streams," said Brent Greiner, Vice-President of Technology at Charter Next Generation. The VO+ PE Masterbatch is added to PE resin to create nano and micro-scale voids, reducing density and creating high levels of opacity via light scattering through the voided structure. VOID's latest VO+ PE Masterbatch product is compliant with direct food contact standards in North America and Europe and has passed key recycling standards. James Gibson, CEO of VOID Technologies, commented, "CNG is a highly innovative and forward-thinking company. We are delighted with this collaboration and to be part of launching this new generation of recycle-ready voided PE films. As we look to the future, we are excited to be working with CNG across a range of projects that directly address sustainability and recycling targets." About Charter Next Generation Charter Next Generation (CNG) is North America's leading producer of highly engineered solutions used in the food, consumer, healthcare, and industrial markets. Committed to a sustainability-first approach, CNG leverages material science to engineer materials that help companies meet and exceed their sustainability goals. Known for world-class manufacturing capabilities and an innovation-driven approach, CNG operates fifteen facilities and employs over 2,200 employees and is a proud partner of Ownership Works®—a nonprofit partnering with companies to enable shared ownership, granting employees a stake in the value they create. About VOID Technologies VOID is a materials science company accelerating the transition to more sustainable plastics and packaging. The company combines its VO+ cavitation technology and R&D labs to help plastic and packaging companies rapidly develop new innovative products with a reduced environmental footprint. VOID's extensively patented VO+ technology was first conceived as part of a research initiative at Kimberly-Clark. Soon after, in 2015, VOID was launched as an independent company. Today, VOID has R&D labs and a compound manufacturing facility based in Neenah, Wisconsin (USA) and has commercial teams in Canada, France, and the UK.

Read More

Chemical Management

Infinium and Amogy Team Up to Spearhead Green Ammonia and eFuels Solutions

Infinium | January 25, 2024

Leading eFuels provider Infinium and Amogy Inc. ("Amogy"), a pioneer of carbon-free, energy-dense power solutions, have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to explore opportunities to integrate their technologies and develop commercial applications across the eFuels and green ammonia value chain. Infinium and Amogy are also exploring collaborations with both Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Group and SK Innovation for deployment of the integrated solution. To accelerate the decarbonization of heavy industry sectors, the companies will jointly study and identify the most suitable applications to deploy their eFuels and green ammonia solutions. A key focus of this collaboration is the potential integration of Amogy's ammonia-cracking technology to provide low-cost, accessible green hydrogen feedstock as an input to produce Infinium's eFuels. Infinium eFuels, also known as electrofuels or Power-to-X, are made from green hydrogen and waste carbon dioxide (CO2) in a proprietary process. Amogy's ammonia-cracking technology leverages its state-of-the-art catalyst materials to crack ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen at lower reaction temperatures with high durability, reducing heating and maintenance requirements. Upon identifying promising applications, Infinium and Amogy will initiate strategic pilot programs, showcasing tangible and scalable implementations of their clean technology solutions. The partnership also entails the evaluation of additional opportunities for collaboration within the eFuels and ammonia spaces, with a focus on the development of commercial use cases. "Ingenuity and collaboration are critical to creating decarbonization solutions today. Our partnership with Amogy will go a long way toward helping advance our ability to rapidly scale the production of ultra-low carbon Infinium eFuels, including eSAF, eDiesel and eNaphtha," said Robert Schuetzle, CEO at Infinium. "We are thrilled to forge this alliance with Infinium. By uniting our expertise and resources, we aim to unlock innovative opportunities that will pave the way for sustainable solutions," says Seonghoon Woo, CEO of Amogy. "This partnership reflects a shared commitment to accelerating technologies that can contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions in the heavy industry sectors." Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has invested in both Infinium and Amogy and is exploring potential collaboration for new solutions and applications in energy sector project development. "Decarbonizing heavy industries requires numerous approaches that can concurrently and collaboratively help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions," said Ricky Sakai, Senior Vice President of New Business Development at MHI of America. "We are excited to see how Amogy's emission-free, energy-dense ammonia solution and Infinium's proprietary eFuels production process might be aligned to overcome challenges and accelerate the global availability of commercial decarbonization solutions." SK Trading International (SKTI) invests in solutions that contribute to addressing climate change and environmental pollution and is an investor in Infinium while its parent company SK Innovation has invested in Amogy. "Our global goals to slow the warming of the planet require significant efforts so they can quickly scale, find synergies, and explore new pathways," said Hyunchol Park, Managing Director and Head of Global Trading at SKTI. "Infinium and Amogy are leaders in their progress and proven solutions, and I believe their partnership will result in the identification of breakthrough opportunities to expand and grow access to cleaner fuels." About Infinium Infinium is an electrofuels provider on a mission to decarbonize the world. Electrofuels are a new class of synthetic fuels made using renewable power and waste carbon dioxide, not petroleum or resources needed to produce food. Infinium electrofuels can be dropped into existing trucks, planes and ships, significantly reducing harmful carbon dioxide emissions compared to fossil-based fuels. In addition to helping the transport industry meet carbon reduction goals, Infinium electrofuels are a lower carbon alternative for chemical processing, including plastics production. About Amogy Founded in 2020, Amogy is on a mission to unlock the potential of ammonia as a clean energy source, accelerating the global journey to Net Zero and sustaining future generations. With a presence in Brooklyn, Houston, Norway, and Singapore, Amogy is developing fully integrated ammonia-to-power systems to enable the decarbonization of the hard-to-abate sectors, such as shipping, power generation, and heavy-duty transportation.

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